One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion and Welfare Loss
报告人： Yi Zhou
地点：Room 217, Guanghua Building 2
This paper studies the marriage distortion and associated welfare loss caused by the One-Child Policy (OCP) in China. Using the variation in the ethnicity-specific assigned birth quotas and different fertility penalties across provinces over time, we first show that the OCP induced a significantly higher unmarried rate and more interethnic marriages. Using the sufficient statistics approach, we derive a formula for the social welfare loss caused by the OCP-induced lower fertility and marriage distortion that depends only on the estimated reduced-form elasticities. Our estimates imply that the welfare losses caused by lowered fertility and by marriage distortion are 2.6 and 1.1 percent of annual household income, respectively.
About the Speaker:
Yi Zhou is an assistant professor in Center for Social Research at Peking University. He holds a PhD in Demography from University of California at Berkeley, a MA in Economics and a BA in Accounting from Peking University. His research interests include economic demography, organizational demography and population aging. His research has appeared in journals such as Population and Development Review, Social Science & Medicine, Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory and Chinese Sociological Review. He received 18th National An-Zijie International Trade Outstanding Research Award in 2014.